Analysts Warn Trump's Tilt Toward Russia Poses Deep Risks for Canada

In the six weeks between Prime Minister Mark Carney's visit to the European Parliament and the arrival of senior EU officials for a joint summit in Montreal, the United States has moved markedly closer to Russia. Some Canadian analysts say that shift carries real danger for Canada, and one that partnerships with allies across the Atlantic cannot easily fix.

Days after Carney returned home, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio invited Russian President Vladimir Putin to the G20 summit planned for December in Miami. On Oct. 9, Washington lifted sanctions on Russian oil and announced a deal to buy diesel directly from Russia. Vincent Rigby, who served as national security and intelligence adviser to the prime minister until 2021, said this is "not Trump playing footsie with Putin" but something "far, far more serious."

The shift goes beyond gestures, according to the analysts. Under what Trump called an "energy ceasefire," Ukraine was expected to stop striking Russian refineries while Russia kept hitting Ukrainian power plants. Starlink and Starshield service then slowed, and the White House and Elon Musk traded blame over who ordered it. The U.S. also appeared to stop warning Ukraine of incoming ballistic missiles, and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said it had become harder to obtain Patriot missiles. Rob Huebert of the University of Calgary said the actions can only be read as an attempt to make Ukraine lose the war.

Washington also reportedly pressed European countries to release billions of euros in frozen Russian assets, and Trump signed an executive order waiving sanctions on Russia. Maria Popova, a McGill University expert on Russia, said the administration spent its first year making the U.S. more neutral in the war and now appears to be working toward an open alliance with Putin. In her view, that path ends with the U.S. directly helping Russia's war effort.

Rigby said closer U.S.-Russian ties raise immediate fears about Arctic sovereignty and, in a worst case, "could be the end of NORAD." Huebert offered a more cynical reading of the oil and diesel moves, suggesting they may be a short-term bid to calm American voters angry about fuel prices before the midterms. The rest of the policy shift, he said, is harder to explain.

A proposed three-way meeting with Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping has revived concerns that Trump wants to replace the postwar alliance system with a carve-up among three strongmen. Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov said on Sunday that preparations have begun for a summit on the sidelines of the Nov. 18-19 APEC meeting in Shenzhen, China. Popova warned that a later meeting could decide the fate of Canada or Taiwan. Rigby said such a world would marginalize middle powers, echoing Carney's remarks at Davos.

Canada is responding by building new alliances, rearming, and trying to keep relations with Washington calm and bilateral institutions running. Rigby said Canada will have to reach out to Europe. Deeper integration of defence-industrial bases, technology exchanges, a payments system less exposed to U.S. interference and new satellites independent of Musk or the Pentagon could all strengthen Canadian sovereignty.

Geography still limits the options. Unlike Ukraine, which borders four EU countries and can be resupplied easily, Canada would be largely on its own in a real confrontation with the U.S. There are some reassurances: most Americans, including many Republicans, do not share Trump's warmth toward Russia or approve of his trade war with Canada. And unless he subverts the Constitution, he has 26 months left. Rigby nonetheless expects those months to be turbulent, and said Canadians could see a president after next week who is "even more reckless, less restrained and more aggressive."