Florida vs. Kentucky odds, prediction: Model leans Under in Week 11 SEC clash

Florida will take on Kentucky at Kroger Field in Lexington, Ky., with kickoff set for 6:15 p.m. ET on Saturday in an SEC matchup. The Gators made it to Lexington ahead of the FAA ground stop on Friday and will now try to slow down one of the conference's surprise teams this season.

Kentucky comes in at 7-2 and has been one of the SEC's pleasant surprises, covering the spread in seven of nine games. Florida, meanwhile, sits at 4-4 after stumbling in recent weeks. The Gators have lost three of their last four games, including an 8-27 defeat at Georgia and a 23-7 loss to Oklahoma.

The latest Florida vs. Kentucky odds list the Wildcats as a 3-point favorite, with the over/under set at 52.5 points.

After simulating the matchup 10,000 times, the SportsLine Projection Model is going Under 52.5 points. The model projects 49 combined points, with the Under hitting 58% of the time.

Recent trends support that call. Each of Florida's last four games has gone Under the total, including the Gators' last two games on the road. Kentucky has seen the same pattern lately, with the Wildcats' last three games all finishing Under the total.

Florida's offense, which has already been struggling, will be short-handed in Lexington. Wide receiver Vernell Brown III is sidelined with a knee injury, and tight end Evan Chieca is listed as questionable, further limiting the unit's options against the Wildcats.

Beyond the total, the model also indicates that one side of the 3-point spread covers in well over 50% of its simulations, though it did not publicly reveal which side that is.