Serbia's ruling party faces first real threat in 14 years as student list surges

Serbia’s ruling Serbian Progressive Party and the opposition Student List face a decisive clash in Sunday’s parliamentary election. The contest marks the first genuinely competitive race in the 14 years since former President Aleksandar Vucic took power, according to political scientist Dusan Spasojevic. The outcome remains uncertain, with polls indicating a narrow margin that could trigger a post-election crisis.

The Student List, formed after a two-year protest movement, targets a vote share exceeding 40 percent. Spasojevic noted that the movement has generated substantial support and hope among voters. This potential shift contrasts with the incumbent party’s strategy, which frames the election as a choice between stability and chaos.

Thousands gathered in Belgrade on Thursday for the Student List’s final rally. Many attendees had walked for days from across the country to reach the capital. Arsa Stojanovic, a biology student and participant in the march, told the crowd that the walkers visited villages and neighborhoods across Serbia. He said the group learned they could count on the people. Aleksandar Cupic, a transport engineering professor and Student List candidate, described the atmosphere as smelling like freedom. The event concluded with a traditional kolo dance.

The protests originated in November 2024, when a concrete canopy collapsed at the Novi Sad railway station, killing 16 people. The Student List has positioned the election as a demand for accountability regarding that disaster and a fight against corruption. The group aims to transcend traditional ideological and foreign policy divisions that have long defined Serbian politics.

The campaign has been marked by tension. The independent monitoring group CRTA recorded 116 incidents of physical violence or verbal threats by the final week. These incidents included physical confrontations and attacks on campaigners. CRTA reported that opposition activists, particularly those linked to the Student List, faced surveillance and police questioning. The group stated that the campaign was not free or fair, citing a narrowing of freedoms.

Media analysis supports these concerns. CRTA found that nearly three-quarters of political airtime on national television went to government representatives. More than 80 percent of coverage focusing on the Student List was negative. The Balkan Investigative Reporting Network published testimony from a former SNS member describing pressure on public-sector employees to deliver votes. Anonymous sources told Deutsche Welle that voters were offered between 30 and 150 euros, or family holiday packages, to support the SNS.

The Serbian Progressive Party held its own closing rally a few kilometers from the student event. The party’s message emphasized continuity, prosperity, and sovereignty. Vucic accused opponents of serving foreign interests and attacking the party with billions of euros. He claimed that opponents tried to destroy the country on foreign orders.

Authorities have warned for weeks about potential street violence on election night. Several individuals have been arrested on suspicion of plotting disturbances. Spasojevic said a decisive victory for either side would be the best outcome, but polls suggest a close result. He added that a narrow SNS victory would almost certainly be contested, and the Student List has vowed to defend every vote.

The European Union has closely monitored the process. An EU Commission spokesperson stated that key recommendations on improving Serbia’s electoral framework remain unimplemented. The spokesperson emphasized that democracy and the rule of law are central to Serbia’s accession process. Serbia has been an EU candidate country since 2012.