Ater: Upcoming Vote May Accelerate Record Israeli Exodus
New data reveals a historic surge in emigration, with experts warning that next week's election results could drive even more skilled workers and families abroad.
By Kateryna Melnyk ·
The number of Israelis leaving the country has reached its highest level in recorded history, and a leading economist predicts that the national election scheduled for next week could intensify this trend. Itai Ater, a professor at the Coller School of Management at Tel Aviv University, argues that the political uncertainty surrounding the vote may push more residents to seek a new life abroad. He notes that the past three years have been defined by war, economic instability, and a prime minister whose corruption trial has lingered without a verdict since 2020. Ater suggests that many citizens are now questioning whether they want to raise their children in such an environment, and he expresses personal sympathy for those who decide to leave.
A study published in February by Ater and his colleagues, using data from the Central Bureau of Statistics, provides the numbers behind this exodus. The research found that 99,000 Israelis departed between January 2023 and December 2024. The researchers defined emigration as being away for at least three consecutive months and spending more than 270 days outside the country in the first year of departure. The data shows a split of roughly 50,000 departures in 2023 and 49,000 in 2024. Preliminary figures indicate that this pattern continued through 2025, suggesting the trend is not slowing down.
The backdrop for this migration includes the Hamas attack on southern Israel in 2023, which killed approximately 1,200 people and resulted in 250 hostages being taken. Israel responded with a significant military campaign in the Gaza Strip. Although a fragile ceasefire took effect in October 2025, Israel retains control over about 60 percent of the enclave and continues regular military activity there. This ongoing situation has created a sense of instability that contributes to the decision to leave.
The upcoming election introduces a new layer of uncertainty. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the longest-serving leader in the country's history, is seeking power again. Current polls suggest his far-right bloc will fail to secure the 61 Knesset seats required to form a government. A rival bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot of the Yashar party is positioned to win the most seats but is also expected to fall short of a majority. Since coalitions are typically necessary, the political maneuvering will likely continue after the vote, a process in which Netanyahu has long been considered adept.
Ater warned that without a significant political change, the number of departures could climb sharply. He stated that the emigration numbers will go up dramatically if the status quo persists. Avigail Ben-Porat, a 50-year-old single mother living in Kiryat Shmona near the Lebanese border, shared her personal struggle. She dreams of leaving but lacks the financial means. She still hears rocket fire regularly and notes that many of her friends have already relocated to countries such as Portugal, Canada, Thailand, and India.
Researchers are also concerned about the specific demographics of those leaving. The study highlights a sharp rise in the departures of highly skilled professionals, including doctors, Ph.D. holders, and engineers. In 2023 and 2024, there were net departures of 2,360 engineers and 509 doctors. Ater emphasized that Israel's economy relies heavily on this human capital, particularly in the tech industry, academia, and health care sectors. The loss of these key workers poses a long-term challenge for the national economy.
Business leaders are also weighing their options. Liam Schwartz, who heads the corporate immigration department at the Tel Aviv law firm Goldfarb, Gross, Seligman, noted that some firms are facing pressure from non-Israeli shareholders and investors who are worried about the viability of operating from the country. These firms are becoming more willing to shift parts of their workforce to North America or Europe. Schwartz traced this discontent to January 2023, when the government proposed judicial reforms that would have reduced the Supreme Court's powers. He said that people feel the Israeli government is no longer meeting its part of the social contract. Schwartz called the October vote a potential watershed moment for whether emigration rises further. Ater described the stakes as a strategic risk to Israel as a democracy and a liberal country, noting that it is a concern for the Middle East and the wider world as well.
Source: CBC News
