Border costs drive shift in Texas 15th district polling

In the Rio Grande Valley, a region that helped Donald Trump win an unusual share of Hispanic votes in 2024, local sentiment is moving back toward the Democratic Party before the November 3 midterm elections.

The area has a long history of border activity. Under President Joe Biden, more than 2.5 million people were apprehended in one year at nearby crossings. Trump promised to end illegal crossings during his 2024 campaign, and current data shows crossing levels at their lowest point in decades. That promise helped him secure roughly 55% of the Hispanic vote in Texas, a record for a Republican presidential candidate.

Recent changes have altered that support. The state legislature redrew the 15th congressional district in 2025 to give Republicans an 18-point advantage. However, polls taken since late summer show a Democratic lead of five to six points. This shift follows a period of intense federal immigration enforcement. Government figures obtained by the Deportation Data Project indicate that Texas accounted for about one-third of all Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrests nationwide in July 2026. That is a larger share than any other state.

Local leaders and residents link this shift to economic strain and the manner of enforcement. Father Roy Snipes, a priest at the La Lomita Catholic Chapel, told a small congregation that there is no good excuse to detain and deport their neighbors. Mario Guerrero, a Mexican-American businessman who voted for Trump three times, plans to vote for a Democrat in November. He noted that an acquaintance’s crew of 35 daily workers has shrunk to just four or six people. Guerrero said voters were not told how far the administration would go with its crackdown.

Cost of living concerns are also driving the change. At a local avocado festival, residents blamed the president for rising prices. Dave Baldwin stated that the president controls their destiny but is not doing a good job. Republican consultant Mike Madrid noted that Latinos are more likely than other groups to identify as independents, making them a swing group.

Bobby Pulido, the Democratic candidate for the 15th district, is a Tejano singer and two-time Latin Grammy winner. He has avoided the national party brand and focused on the local economy. He told voters, "This isn't New York, this isn't LA." The Republican mayor of McAllen, Javier Villalobos, acknowledged the race will be tough. He said most people accept deporting criminals, but the problem begins with deporting productive, law-abiding people.

Republican campaigners admit they are facing challenges. Student volunteer Alexis Uscanga described the midterms as a game of turnout. Tano Tijerina, the Republican candidate in the neighboring 28th district, said national political headwinds are real. If the polls hold, a modest swing back to Democrats could put a US Senate seat in play, a position Democrats have not won in over 30 years.