Iran Uses Espionage Fears to Widen Crackdown on Dissent, Analysts Say

Two wars waged on Iran by the United States and Israel have revealed serious weaknesses in the country's intelligence and security institutions, but analysts say Tehran is also using the threat of espionage to tighten its grip on dissent.

Saeid Golkar, an associate professor of political science at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga, pointed to the killing of senior figures, including former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on the first day of the latest Israeli and US assault on February 28 as proof the threat is genuine. He added that the government has long used real, or more often perceived, security threats to justify repression. The current crackdown, he said, reflects both legitimate counterintelligence worries and a wider effort to intimidate society.

Recent remarks from Israel have fed Iranian suspicions. Former Mossad director David Barnea, who led the agency for five years until June 2026, told a conference in Israel on October 22 that he approved the entry of dozens of agents with intelligence or sabotage assignments in the weeks before the 12-day war of June 2025. "I can't say that they are here with us. But they are there in Tehran, living their lives," he said.

Barnea also said Israeli intelligence tried to maximise the number of Iranians arrested by local authorities in order to protect its real agents. Hours after the war began, he said, footage of agents inside Iran bearing a Mossad logo was deliberately released, leading to thousands of arrests of people with no connection to the service. He claimed almost all of the agency's assets remained unidentified.

Since the 2025 war, Iran has sharply sped up national security prosecutions, including mass arrests, expedited trials, long prison terms, asset seizures and executions. Those targeted include alleged spies, but also protesters, journalists, lawyers and minorities. Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have documented coerced confessions, denial of effective defence and the use of national security charges against dissenters.

The numbers are large. Judiciary spokesman Ali Kazemi said earlier in October that cases were active against at least 1,895 people, including 94 media workers, accused of cooperating with Israel or other hostile states. Police announced at least 21,000 arrests after the June 2025 war, and at least 50,000 people were detained in connection with the January 2026 protests. The UN said at least 19 people were hanged in espionage-related cases between June and December 2025. Iran Human Rights recorded 16 espionage defendants executed from January to September 2026, and Amnesty reported at least 34 executions linked to the January protests by October 13.

Rules on communication have also hardened. Sending images or information to networks deemed hostile, including BBC Persian, can bring 10 to 15 years in prison, and combined with other offences could lead to "corruption on Earth" charges, which carry the death penalty. Authorities call Starlink a "tool of war" and have tried to confiscate or jam the terminals that tens of thousands of people have smuggled in. Iran also imposed a near-total internet shutdown on 90 million people for several days during the 12-day war, for 20 days during the January protests and for 88 days at the start of the current war.

Negar Mortazavi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, agreed that Tehran has legitimate concerns about infiltration and sabotage, but stressed that "there is a fundamental distinction between espionage and dissent." Criticising the government, reporting on its failures or engaging with foreign media does not in itself amount to espionage, she said, yet authorities have increasingly blurred the two.

Golkar offered a similar assessment. While counterespionage is a legitimate state function, he said, it has become a tool to protect the ruling establishment and expand the influence of security institutions. Over time, he argued, the Islamic republic has become a security-dominated regime that treats even nonviolent dissent as a potential threat to its survival.