Three haredi seats may decide if Netanyahu or the opposition forms Israel's next government

Political assessments released in the final hours before Israeli voters cast ballots suggest that Agudat Yisrael, a three-member haredi faction, could hold the balance of power in the upcoming Knesset. Leaders are weighing scenarios where this small bloc provides support to a cabinet led by the opposition, potentially allowing a government to form without a traditional broad coalition.

The core mathematical challenge remains the 61-seat threshold required for a Knesset majority. If neither the right-wing camp nor the opposition bloc secures this number alone, they must seek outside votes. Current discussions focus on whether Agudat Yisrael will back a government in exchange for specific budgetary agreements. Even with that support, political figures note that votes from Arab parties may still be necessary to stabilize the cabinet.

Yitzhak Goldknopf, who leads Agudat Yisrael, faces a difficult internal calculation. His voter base aligns primarily with the right. Assessments indicate that if he moves too close to the opposition camp, supporters may defect to Likud or Otzma Yehudit. This risk exists alongside existing tensions within United Torah Judaism, particularly disagreements with the Degel Hatorah faction over the haredi military draft and relations with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

These divisions were evident in August when Maariv reported that Agudat Yisrael was exploring cooperation with Gadi Eisenkot. A letter from Rabbi Dov Lando further complicated matters by expressing reservations about maintaining a commitment to the political bloc led by Netanyahu. While Degel Hatorah expressed a lack of confidence in the current government, Goldknopf’s faction has shown more openness to new options, though no formal agreement has been reached.

Another potential wildcard is former prime minister Naftali Bennett. If no bloc reaches 61 seats, Bennett is viewed by some in the establishment as the only leader in the opposition camp capable of reshaping the political map. His background on the right makes him a plausible candidate to join a Netanyahu-led government if the math demands it. However, this move would require him to switch his political support base, a complicated step given the composition of his current party.

The possibility of Avigdor Liberman making a similar shift has been raised due to his history of serving as defense minister under Netanyahu. Yet, current assessments suggest Liberman is unlikely to do so again because of deep personal and political disagreements with the prime minister. For now, these scenarios remain political assessments rather than negotiated deals, as parties prepare for the coalition talks that will follow the vote.