Xi, Trump, and Putin May Meet in Shenzhen

Beijing has confirmed that China is in communication with Washington and Moscow regarding a potential meeting between President Donald Trump, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The gathering would take place this month on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen. Nothing is finalized, but the event would mark the first time the three leaders convene together.

The path to this potential summit began with Beijing’s hosting of the APEC leaders meeting, a 21-member grouping that includes both the U.S. and Russia. Trump is expected to travel to Shenzhen to meet Xi for the third time this year, a visit intended to maintain a fragile trade truce that expires in January. In a separate sign of ongoing friction, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer urged Vice Premier He Lifeng via video call on Friday to take concrete actions on agricultural purchases and rare earths.

Mao Ning, spokesperson for the Chinese foreign ministry, stated at a press briefing that China is discussing the meeting with relevant parties. While the format remains undetermined, analysts suggest the primary goal is image over substance. Sun Yun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, noted that China wants the visual impact without the diplomatic costs. She added that the three leaders are unlikely to discuss substantive issues because their interests are currently at odds.

Trump has expressed interest in using the meeting to discuss nuclear arms controls. However, Putin is focused on the war in Ukraine, a topic that complicates the agenda since Kyiv is not at the table. Danny Russel, a former senior State Department official, said Russia is pushing for the meeting to secure a diplomatic coup. He warned that Trump, who has a crush on authoritarian strongmen, has been advised by his staff to steer clear of the Ukraine debate.

Experts caution that the trilateral may serve Russia more than the other two nations. Sun of the Stimson Center said Russia would likely use the summit to nudge China and the U.S. closer to Moscow's positions on Ukraine. She emphasized that China must manage this manipulation while avoiding deep engagements on arms control or regional conflicts. Beijing’s main challenge is preventing the summit from being perceived as three great powers dividing the world.

Craig Singleton, senior director of the China program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, described the event as potentially just a photo opportunity. He noted that while the spectacle may be historic, these types of gatherings often have diminishing diplomatic returns. The meeting may allow Putin to be seen alongside the other two leaders without producing particularly consequential policy outcomes.