Citrinowicz predicts third Iran war phase after Nov. 3 vote

Danny Citrinowicz, a former Israeli military intelligence official, warned on Friday that the United States and Israel will likely resume fighting Iran once the U.S. midterm elections conclude on November 3. Citrinowicz, who currently works with the Institute for National Security Studies, told CBC News that a renewed war seems almost inevitable. He expects this third phase of conflict to be more destructive than the first two.

Citrinowicz anticipates that new strikes will focus on Gulf energy facilities, civilian infrastructure, and communications networks, including internet cables beneath the Strait of Hormuz. He also noted that Iran might use its land army to conduct limited attacks on Gulf states hosting U.S. bases, such as Kuwait and Bahrain. The goal of such moves would be to inflict maximum damage on the American economy.

The two nations have fought Iran in two separate wars over the past 18 months under President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The first war began in June 2025 with strikes on nuclear sites and lasted 12 days. Fighting returned in February after a U.S. military buildup, opening with Israeli strikes on senior Iranian leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Since then, both sides have largely held off on fresh strikes against bases or territory, though the conflict remains active.

The U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports, while Iran has targeted commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, raising global energy costs. On Thursday, Trump accused Iran on Truth Social of inflating oil prices before the midterms by creating fake hits and mines. A report from the Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War agreed that the vessel attacks are designed to pressure Washington. Iranian demands include relief from sanctions, reparations, the release of frozen assets, and the right to keep enriched uranium.

Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have spent weeks trying to restart talks without success. Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution warned that retaliation would likely come from proxies like the Houthis and Hezbollah, potentially targeting airports. Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace argued that diplomacy has not died but has been narrowed by Trump's maximalist aims. He said Iran would only compromise under existential economic pressure and a clear diplomatic exit.

Western NGOs report that more than 7,000 people have died in Iran, while Lebanese media report over 4,000 deaths in Lebanon. Twenty-one U.S. service members and more than 70 Israelis have also been killed. The Pentagon is reportedly drafting a new battle plan, though it is unclear if Trump will approve it. Netanyahu has spoken of finishing the job to bring down the Iranian regime as he faces voters in a close race. Citrinowicz said a widening crisis could help Netanyahu stay in power through an emergency unity government, though he warned that political calculation might lead to an unnecessary attack.