Early 2027 Fantasy Baseball Draft Trends

The Major League Baseball offseason has begun with 40-man roster moves, setting the stage for fantasy baseball planning despite a looming lockout and pending collective bargaining agreement. Early draft data from the NFBC platform provides a preliminary look at player values for the 2027 season. As of November 4, 2026, 18 drafts have been completed, primarily in best-ball formats that limit trading and bench options. These early numbers offer a snapshot of current market sentiment before the free-agent market fully opens.

Shohei Ohtani remains the No. 2 overall pick in average draft position, despite finishing as the No. 40 hitter in 2026. Drafters are weighing his age, as he will turn 33 mid-season, against his historical consistency. He has not finished lower than seventh among hitters since 2022. His dual role as a pitcher presents a mixed value profile, potentially limiting his base-stealing opportunities and increasing injury risk while offering occasional pitching upside. Picking him second reflects a bet that his 2026 performance was a temporary dip rather than a permanent decline.

Aaron Judge has slid near the end of the first round, a sharp drop from his previous status as a consensus top-five pick. He will be 35 shortly after the scheduled opening day and missed 106 games in 2026. His strikeout rate rose from 24% to 30%, and his expected weighted on-base average on contact, while still the best in baseball, narrowed its lead over James Wood to four-thousandths of a point. This shift suggests he may no longer be the clear best hitter in the sport, making his injury risk harder to ignore for fantasy managers.

Konnor Griffin is being drafted as a second-round pick, a price that reflects his rookie season numbers. He played 80 games in 2026, producing a .272 average, 12 home runs, and 46 stolen bases. Projecting a full season based on that pace yields stats comparable to Bobby Witt Jr., who finished as the No. 32 hitter last year. However, Griffin’s performance in his final 61 games was stronger, featuring a .297 average and 16 home runs. This later surge supports a higher valuation, though the early market price remains conservative.

Jacob Misiorowski has secured the No. 1 spot among starting pitchers with an average draft position of 9.12. Tarik Skubal follows at 14.06, despite having a longer track record. Cam Schlittler anchors the next tier at 16.65. Paul Skenes remains a top-10 starter at SP8, though his recent velocity decline complicates his ranking. Zack Wheeler sits at SP15, a position that reflects cautious optimism given his age and recent surgery. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Cal Raleigh continue to fall in value, with Guerrero remaining a top-75 pick and Raleigh hovering around the top 100. Mookie Betts is no longer considered a top-12 shortstop following a steep drop in stolen bases and batting average.

These early trends are subject to change as the offseason progresses. The final draft order will likely shift after free-agent signings and trade activity settle. Managers should monitor the market closely, as the current data comes from a limited number of best-ball leagues that may not reflect the dynamics of standard 12-team managed leagues.