Gray faces Lincoln in tight Valley House race

California voters will decide the outcome of a closely contested House race on Nov. 3. The margin of victory for the incumbent was 187 votes in the previous election. That narrow result defines the current contest between Democratic U.S. Rep. Adam Gray and Republican Kevin Lincoln.

Gray secured the seat two years ago by defeating Republican Rep. John Duarte. The final count showed 210,921 ballots cast. Lincoln, the former Stockton mayor, seeks to unseat Gray in a district that was recently redrawn. The new boundaries shift the district's focus to the San Joaquin Valley's agricultural heartland and extend south along Interstate 5 to the Coalinga area.

Both candidates agree that affordability is the central issue for voters. They disagree on the solutions. Lincoln argues that home ownership is becoming too expensive. He says his goal is to restore the American dream by lowering the cost of gas, food, and utilities. He also plans to cut taxes and expand healthcare access.

Gray counters by pointing to specific legislative actions. He says he worked to reverse Medicaid cuts under Republican control. He also introduced a measure to reduce regulations on thermal energy. Gray notes that gasoline and diesel prices have risen since the start of the war with Iran. Lincoln responds by accusing Gray of increasing the state gas tax by 113% per gallon while serving in the California Legislature.

Fundraising data shows a substantial gap between the two campaigns. Federal Election Commission figures from June 30 list Gray with $4.2 million in contributions and loans. Lincoln has raised $2.2 million. The district previously registered 42.3% of voters as Democrats and 28.5% as Republicans, according to 2023 state records.

Lincoln has received a high-profile endorsement from President Donald Trump. Trump wrote on Truth Social in December that Lincoln has his complete and total endorsement. Lincoln called the support honored and thankful in a statement at the time. He continues to promote the endorsement on his campaign website. Democrats in the district believe that high gas prices and immigration raids may hurt candidates associated with the president.

Lincoln served in the Marine Corps from 2001 to 2005. His LinkedIn profile lists a role in the White House Military Office. He states that he guarded Marine One during that period. He also served as executive pastor at Stockton's LifeSong Ministries until 2020. He recorded a video for the National Republican Congressional Committee that details his military service and mayoral experience.

Gray, a native of Merced, describes himself as an independent voice rather than a strict partisan. He serves as a whip for the Blue Dog Coalition. He called Trump's deportation policies irresponsible, reckless, and dangerous. Lincoln ran against Rep. Josh Harder in the 9th District in 2024 but lost. He switched to the 13th District after Proposition 50 redrawn the boundaries.

The two candidates have traded specific claims about their voting records and policy priorities. Lincoln says he knows how to fight and win tough elections. Gray emphasizes his record of working across party lines. The election will determine which politician represents the redrawn district in the next Congress.