Islamic State Plots Against Israel Surge Since 2023

Islamic State has attempted more attacks against Israel in the three years following the October 7, 2023, invasion than in the nearly decade prior. Aaron Zelin, the Gloria and Ken Levy Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, released this finding in a publication on Thursday.

Zelin compiled a database of publicly reported arrests linked to Islamic State by Israeli forces dating back to 2014. His data shows that the Israel Defense Forces, the Shin Bet, and other security agencies disrupted 50 IS-related arrest operations in the nine and a half years before the Hamas invasion. Since then, those agencies have carried out 46 additional operations.

The nature of the threats has shifted from online propaganda to physical plots. Before the war, foreign fighters typically traveled to Syria or focused on digital recruitment, resulting in 18 actual or attempted attacks on foreign soil. Since October 7, the group has attempted 28 attacks. While almost none succeeded, the plots now involve direct connections to Islamic State operatives rather than lone-wolf actions.

Investigators have uncovered specific plans targeting key Israeli infrastructure. In late December 2023, forces arrested two men in the Ras al-Amud neighborhood of east Jerusalem. The suspects, aged 19 and 20, possessed chemicals for explosives, a notebook with bomb-making instructions, and an Islamic State flag. They allegedly planned to load a truck with gas canisters and detonate it near the Knesset.

Other cells have targeted military and civilian sites. A four-man group near Hebron, led by a man in contact with IS operatives abroad, manufactured approximately 100 explosive devices intended for use against soldiers. In Tayibe, near Kfar Saba, five men calculated the amount of explosive material needed to collapse the Azrieli Towers in Tel Aviv and planned a car bombing at the adjacent mall.

Zelin describes this escalation as part of a strategy to encourage Palestinians to favor Islamic State over Hamas. In January 2024, IS spokesman Abu Hudhayfa al-Ansari urged Palestinians to turn against Hamas, which the group considers an Iranian proxy. He called on supporters to kill Jews and Christians in the streets and alleyways of the West.

The group also targets Israel’s regional protectors and Jewish communities abroad. A September 2025 article in the Islamic State weekly newsletter noted that crossing into Israel was difficult because Arab states guarding US bases were protecting its borders. This aligns with the group's stated aim to strike those who shield Israel.

Historical data shows the threat is not new. In 2022, two Arab Israeli terrorists who swore allegiance to ISIS killed 19-year-old Border Police officers Yazan Fallah and Shirel Aboukaret. They wounded 12 others in the same attack.

Recruitment methods have evolved with digital tools. In 2025, three residents of the northern town of Arara contacted an Islamic State operative in Syria through TikTok. The operative sent manuals and videos on bomb construction. A separate cell in the Sur Baher neighborhood of east Jerusalem was in contact with operatives in the West Bank and Syria, planning to travel there for training.

More than a third of the suspects in these recent plots had direct contact with Islamic State members abroad or were attempting to reach them. In response, Israel has expanded its pursuit of IS networks beyond its borders, conducting nighttime raids and strikes in Syria.