Maine 2nd District: LePage's Late Lead Over Dunlap Hinges on Rural Returns
As Democrats sweep the state, the former governor leads by roughly 6,700 votes in a race that could flip the seat for the first time since 2018.
By Yuki Melnyk ·
Paul LePage holds a slim but growing advantage in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, a contest that will decide whether the Republican retains the state’s only House seat. While Democrats swept the state’s other top races on Tuesday, LePage’s position in the 2nd District remains the focal point of the night’s final counts. A win would place him in New England’s congressional delegation as the sole Republican, reversing a trend that began when Democrats took the district in 2018.
The path to this moment involved a shifting electoral map. In 2024, the district was nearly even, but local results from 2026 indicate a stronger Republican lean. The BDN’s analysis rates the race as likely for LePage, though Decision Desk HQ had classified it as a toss-up earlier in the week. The outcome depends on the remaining vote count in 111 towns, a process that extends well past midnight.
As of early Wednesday, State Auditor Matt Dunlap trailed LePage by approximately 1,000 votes. To reverse that deficit, Dunlap needs the outstanding towns to favor his opponent by no more than two points. Historical data suggests this is improbable. In 2024, these same towns supported Republicans by nine points. The BDN’s model projects that in 2026, those towns will favor LePage by about 13 points.
If the model holds, LePage will net roughly 7,700 additional votes, resulting in a victory margin of about 6,700. Even at the lower end of the projection, his net gain would be around 5,800 votes, a figure more than five times the amount needed to overcome his current deficit. The bulk of this projected margin comes from approximately 105 small, rural towns that have not yet reported their totals.
Farmington stands out as Dunlap’s best remaining opportunity. As the only large Democratic-leaning town still outstanding, it is expected to net him about 740 votes. By comparison, the towns of Sabattus, Oxford, and Pittsfield are projected to net LePage about 1,100 votes. The disparity between these groups illustrates the geographic divide driving the current returns.
The race may still require a ranked-choice count if blank ballots and 149 write-ins prevent the winner from securing a majority. This scenario mirrors the 2024 election, where a similar threshold was missed. However, the BDN notes that the race can be called even before all ballots are tallied if the remaining votes cannot alter the final result.
LePage’s potential victory stands in contrast to the rest of Maine’s ballot. Democrat Troy Jackson defeated U.S. Sen. Susan Collins, handing the Senate to the Democratic party. Hannah Pingree won the governor’s race, and Democrats increased their majorities in both chambers of the state Legislature. LePage remains the lone Republican candidate positioned to hold office in the coming term.
