Shi'ite Backing Shift: Poll Shows Majority Want Hezbollah Arms Transferred

A significant shift in political alignment within Lebanon's Shi'ite community has emerged, with a majority now supporting the transfer of Hezbollah's arsenal to the national state. This development marks a notable departure from the group's traditional stronghold and raises urgent questions about the future of its military dominance in the region. The data suggests that the social contract between the party and its core supporters is undergoing rapid reevaluation.

The figures are stark. In a poll conducted by Statistics Lebanon in September, 66.4 percent of the 800 Shi'ite respondents favored handing weapons to the state, while only 29.6 percent wanted the group to retain them. Trust in the Lebanese Armed Forces remains high, with 78.5 percent expressing confidence in the military. Furthermore, 51.1 percent identified the army as the best institution for long-term security, a figure that dwarfs the 16.5 percent who chose Hezbollah. On the issue of sovereignty, 71.1 percent believe decisions on war and peace should rest solely with the state, while just 5.9 percent want Hezbollah's leadership to play a larger role.

The survey highlights a complex mix of dissatisfaction and lingering loyalty. While 67.4 percent feel Hezbollah has failed or only partially succeeded in the war with Israel, 59.5 percent still express some trust in the organization. Roi Kais of Israel's public broadcaster KAN noted that the party's extensive support networks and status continue to sustain its power, provided no other entity fills the resulting vacuum. This resilience is evident despite 42.1 percent of respondents voicing anger or concern about leadership and the conflict's consequences.

The current findings stand in sharp contrast to earlier data. A May 2026 survey cited by researchers at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies showed that 87.5 percent of Shi'ites opposed disarming Hezbollah. The wide gap between the two polls has led analysts to question whether differences in survey wording or agenda influenced the outcomes. Researchers Orna Mizrahi and Moran Levanoni argued that the party's influence relies heavily on social networks and historical marginalization, suggesting that weakening it requires a stronger army and significant financial support from Western and Gulf nations.

Local reactions reflect growing wariness. In the southern city of Tyre, property owners reportedly resisted opening a branch of the Hezbollah-linked financial institution Al-Qard Al-Hassan in their building, fearing it would become a target in Israeli strikes. The party has announced aid packages of up to $14,000 for families in Beirut and its southern suburbs whose homes were destroyed, and up to $12,000 elsewhere. With the group having suffered major leadership losses, including the killing of Hassan Nasrallah in 2024, and facing heavy destruction from the March 2026 war, the coming months will test whether discontent translates into lasting political change.

The stakes are high for both the Lebanese state and Hezbollah. If the state can deliver security and reconstruction, it may solidify its position as the primary guarantor of safety. Conversely, if the party maintains its grip through economic support, it could weather the current dip in approval ratings. The outcome will determine the balance of power in a country where the Shi'ite community has long been the decisive voting bloc.