Eisenkot Targets 58 Seats to Form New Israeli Government

Gadi Eisenkot is pushing a plan to form a government with 58 seats, a number that would allow his coalition to take office without securing the 61 seats typically required for a stable majority. Eisenkot, who seeks the lead role in the anti-Netanyahu bloc, believes this path is viable if his parties win 58 or 59 seats in the upcoming elections. Under this scenario, the new cabinet would win a confidence vote by relying on abstentions from other members of the Knesset.

The legal mechanics distinguish between forming a government and removing one. Swearing in a new administration requires a simple majority in a confidence vote, meaning abstentions count as non-objections. In contrast, a constructive vote of no confidence, which would be necessary to oust a sitting government like Netanyahu's, strictly requires 61 MKs to support an alternative candidate. This distinction means Eisenkot's plan could help install a new government but would not necessarily empower the bloc to remove a current one.

Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Liberman oppose this minority approach. Bennett, who heads the Beyachad list with Yair Lapid, insists on a Zionist government that does not rely on the votes or abstentions of Arab parties. Liberman is even more rigid, rejecting a minority government even if it is transitional. He argues that a Zionist majority must be secured from the start and stated that another election would be preferable to a cabinet that fails to meet his conditions. Liberman has suggested that some Likud MKs might join a government without Netanyahu, though he has not named specific individuals.

Despite their disagreements, the opposition parties are making progress on a separate front. They are nearing an agreement to replace Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana before any coalition deal is finalized. Controlling the speakership would allow the opposition to manage the parliamentary agenda, even if Netanyahu remains head of a caretaker government. Names under consideration for the speakership include Chili Tropper, Matan Kahana, Elazar Stern, Meirav Ben-Ari, Eitan Ginzburg, Efrat Rayten, and Oded Forer. No consensus candidate has been announced yet.

The bloc aims to use the new parliamentary session to advance several legislative goals, including a state commission of inquiry into the events of October 7 and changes to conscription laws. Liberman also wants a law barring individuals facing criminal charges from serving as prime minister. However, coordination remains difficult. Eisenkot and Liberman met this week and agreed only to raise voter turnout. Leadership rivalry persists, with Eisenkot seeking to head the largest party and Bennett viewing himself as a natural candidate based on his previous tenure as prime minister.

Polls currently show the anti-Netanyahu camp ahead of the outgoing coalition, but the seat distribution remains tight. The electoral threshold could shift the final count, and a small number of votes may determine whether Israel forms a new government or faces further political instability. While some polls suggest the right-wing bloc could reach a majority, most indicate the opposition has the edge. The parties have begun coordinating on the details of their legislative agenda, but no binding agreement exists on the specific order of their priorities.

The memory of the previous Bennett-Lapid government, which collapsed before completing its legislative promises, continues to weigh on the current discussions. Not every member of the current bloc supports all proposed judicial changes, and a new speaker would not automatically guarantee a legislative majority. The opposition faces the challenge of unifying its members on a shared platform before the next election, with the 58-seat threshold serving as the central point of contention between Eisenkot and his rivals.