Brazilian voters face 1.3 point gap in final poll

The final day of campaigning in Brazil ended with the race statistically tied.

The political contest has moved through several phases this year. In the first round of voting, Flavio Bolsonaro secured 47 percent of the vote while Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva received 45 percent. The two candidates then entered a run-off phase to determine the next president. Jair Bolsonaro, the father of Flavio and former president from 2019 to 2022, is currently serving a 27 year prison sentence for attempting a coup after losing the 2022 election.

Recent polling data shows the margin between the two men has narrowed. A CNT/MDA poll released on Saturday placed Flavio Bolsonaro at 46.3 percent and Lula at 45 percent. This represents a 1.3 point gap. A week earlier, the same polling organization reported Bolsonaro leading by a wider 46.8 percent to 45.9 percent margin. The margin of error for these surveys is 2.2 percentage points.

The candidates held separate rallies on Saturday to close out their efforts. Lula, aged 80, spoke to a large crowd at Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro. He wore a red hat and waved a Brazilian flag from a campaign truck. He highlighted the influence of US President Donald Trump on his opponent. Lula stated that voters must choose between someone who kisses the national flag or someone who kisses the American flag. He is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term in office.

Flavio Bolsonaro’s supporters gathered in the southeastern state of Minas Gerais. Hundreds of motorcyclists wearing yellow national football shirts attended the event. Ebert Dorigo, a supporter, told AFP that Lula’s Workers’ Party created a dependency on government welfare. Dorigo argued that Brazil needs a change in direction and that hard work drives achievement. He said the values upheld by his side are nation and family.

The two candidates met for a final debate on Friday. They adopted a calmer tone than in previous encounters but still exchanged accusations regarding Brazil’s economic difficulties. Gabriela Ribeiro Viana, an event organizer, described the choice as difficult. She told AFP that if another candidate were available, it would be a better option. She said voters are stuck choosing between the worst option and the lesser evil.

The election is scheduled for Sunday. The vote will determine whether Brazil keeps Lula in office or shifts further to the right. Bolsonaro has pledged to add hundreds of thousands of prison places and cut government spending if he wins.