Kfar Qasim voters may decide if Netanyahu stays

In the town of Kfar Qasim, residents gathered at sunset for knafeh pastries and cardamom coffee to hear campaign speeches. This community represents about 20% of Israel's population, and its voting patterns may determine the outcome of the election scheduled for next week.

Current polling data indicates that Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right coalition will lose its majority in the 120-seat Knesset. The Jewish Israeli opposition bloc is also projected to fall short of the 61 seats required to form a government. Palestinian citizens of Israel are expected to secure between 12 and 15 seats, divided between the Islamist Ra'am party and the Joint List, an alliance of three smaller parties that includes Ta'al.

Ahmad Tibi, who has served in the Knesset for more than two decades and currently leads Ta'al, stated that high turnout among the Arab community is a key tool for ending the current government. He said the goal is to do everything necessary to bring the administration down.

Most of the Jewish opposition has previously ruled out forming a coalition with Arab politicians. Netanyahu and his allies have worked to make such an alliance politically unpopular, using campaign slogans like "It's [either] the right or Palestine" and "Bibi or Tibi." Historically, Israel has had only two Palestinian ministers: Raleb Majadele, who served in the sports portfolio for two years, and Issawi Frej, who handled regional coordination for just over a year.

Past promises to exclude Palestinian parties have been broken. In 2021, Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas joined a historic coalition with Naftali Bennett, who now sits in the opposition bloc. Netanyahu himself once opened coalition talks with Abbas. A prospective voter named Mohammed, who manages mixed Jewish and Arab staff at a hi-tech company, expects the opposition to shift its position once the results are in. He described the situation as simple mathematics, noting that one plus one equals two, and is urging friends of all backgrounds to vote.

Forming an alliance remains difficult for Palestinian politicians. None of the opposition parties call for a two-state solution, most strongly oppose a Palestinian state, and most support the settlement movement in the occupied West Bank. Tibi described his choice as being between "bad and worse," weighing Netanyahu, Bezalel Smotrich, and Itamar Ben-Gvir against the opposition.

Fear is a central motive for voters. The death and destruction in Gaza, militant violence, and ethnic cleansing in the West Bank have deepened worries about another four years of far-right ministers. Sami Abu Shehadeh, leader of the Balad party, said voters understand the danger if "these criminals come back to rule again." Rising racism and discrimination inside Israel have also contributed to these concerns.

Turnout has been depressed in the past by distrust of a system seen as stacked against Palestinians. Last month, Israel's supreme court effectively forced Abu Shehadeh out of the race over an article about the 7 October Hamas-led attacks. The ruling was widely criticized for applying different free speech standards to Jewish and Palestinian citizens. Conversely, a motion to disqualify national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir over racist language, including calls for ethnic cleansing, was not upheld. Some Palestinians, including Haaretz journalist Nagham Zbeedat, abstain on principle, refusing to legitimize a system that treats their rights as favors.

Amjed Iraqi of the International Crisis Group said a returning far-right coalition would have a renewed mandate to speed up policies of ethnic cleansing and annexation. He described the vote as largely about mitigation, noting that Palestinians can see the difference between a rightwing and a far-right government. The election takes place two days before Kfar Qasim marks the 1956 massacre, in which border police killed 49 men, women, and children who had broken a curfew they did not know about.