SpaceX may need 22 rocket flights to send astronauts to the Moon

The financial and logistical architecture of the Artemis program has long been a subject of speculation, with investors and analysts watching closely for any sign of efficiency gains in the space sector.

On Thursday, a new data point emerged that suggests the cost of getting to the Moon is higher than previously thought. During the quarterly meeting of the NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel, panel member Charlie Precourt, a former NASA astronaut, discussed the risks associated with the lunar landing plans. His remarks pointed to a revised estimate that significantly alters the operational requirements for SpaceX's Starship rocket.

The specific figure in question is 22. This is the current estimate for the number of Starship launches required to build a fuel depot in low-Earth orbit. These launches are necessary to provide enough liquid oxygen and methane propellant for the lunar lander to travel to the Moon, land, and return to orbit. This number represents a substantial increase from earlier projections and highlights the complexity of the supply chain required for deep space travel.

For years, NASA has treated this metric with unusual secrecy, guarding the number as if it were a critical security code. The space agency has historically been reluctant to commit to a specific count, often responding that they were still gathering data. In 2023, Lisa Watson-Morgan, who was then the director of NASA’s Human Landing System, told reporters that the agency had a general idea but was hesitant to provide an exact figure. She later described the requirement as being in the 'high single digits to the low double digits.'

That earlier description implied a need for roughly a dozen launches. Under that model, SpaceX would launch one 'depot' Starship and follow it with 11 'tanker' Starships to fill it with fuel. While twelve flights is a significant number, it was considered manageable within the program's timeline. Other officials had even suggested the number might be in the 'high teens,' indicating a range of uncertainty that kept stakeholders on edge.

The jump to 22 launches signals a shift in expectations. It suggests that the rapid improvements in lift capacity that were hoped for may not be arriving soon enough. There is growing concern among some NASA officials that SpaceX may not be able to boost the rocket's performance quickly enough to reduce the number of tanker flights. This delay could impact the ability of the Starship system to play a meaningful role in returning humans to the Moon within this decade.

The implications for the market are clear. A higher launch count means more resources, more risk, and potentially higher costs for the program. It also raises questions about the reliability of the timeline for the Artemis mission. The program relies on the Starship vehicle to handle the heavy lifting of fueling the lander, and any inefficiency in that process ripples through the entire budget.

The involvement of the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel adds a layer of scrutiny to the discussion. By bringing up the launch count in a safety context, the panel is highlighting that the number of flights is not just a logistical detail, but a risk factor. More launches mean more opportunities for something to go wrong, which is a key consideration for any major infrastructure project.

As the details of the 22-launch estimate continue to be analyzed, the focus will remain on whether SpaceX can adapt its technology to lower that number. Until then, the Artemis program faces a more demanding operational reality. The path to the Moon is proving to be more complex and resource-intensive than the optimistic projections of the past few years.