54-Seat Gap Forces Trump Shift

A new Maariv survey indicates the Israeli opposition bloc now holds a 54-seat majority, leaving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's camp with 48 seats. This six-seat deficit appears to be reshaping strategy within the White House, where senior advisers are preparing for a potential change in leadership in Jerusalem.

US officials told Axios that the president's inner circle is optimistic about forming new partnerships if Netanyahu loses power. One adviser described the current dynamic with a blunt assessment: "[Netanyahu] is the devil [Trump] knows." The report notes that many close aides previously opposed the president's public endorsement of the incumbent, arguing he should have stayed out of the race entirely.

Vice President JD Vance navigated the issue this week when asked about his position. He clarified that he was neither attacking nor endorsing the prime minister personally. "I think the president's endorsement is ultimately what matters," Vance told reporters.

Tensions exist within the administration regarding specific policy issues. US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack criticized the Netanyahu government's recent military actions in Syria. Following strikes on a base in the northern Idlib province, Barrack labeled the move an "unnecessary escalation that does not advance regional stability."

Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his team maintain a closer working relationship with the prime minister. However, the report indicates they believe Israel could do more to bolster the Lebanese government. They have also voiced frustration over what they view as a failure to curb settler attacks on Palestinians in the West Bank.

The polling data suggests a shift in voter preference toward coalition building. Sixty percent of respondents said they would prefer a unity government if the election fails to yield a clear majority. Only 23% favored a repeat election, while 17% remained undecided.

Among those supporting a unity government, 33% wanted a leader from the opposition bloc, compared with 19% who preferred Netanyahu. In a direct head-to-head matchup for prime minister, Benny Gantz's ally Eisenkot led the incumbent with 49% support against 41% for Netanyahu.