Maine Senate Race: 56% of likely voters expect Susan Collins to win despite polling lead for Troy Jackson

56% of likely voters in Maine believe incumbent U.S. Sen. Susan Collins will win the Senate seat on Tuesday, according to a University of New Hampshire poll released Sunday. This perception persists even though two new surveys show Democratic challenger Troy Jackson leading in head-to-head matchups.

The UNH survey places Jackson ahead 54% to 45%. A separate New York Times/Siena College poll conducted with the Portland Press Herald shows Jackson leading 51% to 45%. In September, that same Times poll showed Collins ahead 49% to 46%. Most October polling had Jackson leading by two to five points or tied. Collins has not led a public poll since late September.

The disconnect between actual preference and expected outcome is stark. In the UNH poll, 95% of Collins voters believe she will win. Only 47% of Jackson supporters think he will. The Times poll shows similar splits in perception, with Collins viewed favorably by 48% and unfavorably by 49%. The UNH poll shows her favorability at 39% and unfavorability at 54%.

This skepticism stems from Collins’s 2020 victory. In that race, Democrat Sara Gideon led every public poll leading up to Election Day. Collins won by nearly nine points, a margin that made the polling misses among the worst in the country. The current race could determine control of the U.S. Senate.

Regional trends show Collins struggling in areas where she historically performed well. In The Times poll, she lost what is now the 1st District by 22 points, a district she lost by four points in 2020. She led Jackson in the 2nd District by about 10 points in the Times survey, after carrying that area by 23 points in 2020. In the open 1st District seat, Republican Paul LePage leads Democrat Matt Dunlap by five points in both polls.

President Donald Trump is a drag on Collins’s numbers in both surveys. Approximately 60% of likely voters disapprove of his job performance. In the UNH poll, 48% said their Senate vote was intended to oppose Trump. The Times poll found Collins drew 10% of voters who backed Kamala Harris in 2024, meeting the threshold identified by Bangor Daily News analysis as necessary for her to win.

Collins attributed her confidence to direct community engagement. In a Sunday interview with Fox News, she said, “I’m feeling very optimistic based on the great response I get in visiting communities all over the state.” Jackson focused on turnout in cities and Portland suburbs. He told volunteers at his Bangor field office on Saturday, “We will not outspend them, but we will outwork them.”